Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Discretely Observed Multivariate Vasicek Processes

Tuesday, February 21, 2023 – Via WebEx

Please join us for a DMC Lecture Series event: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Discretely Observed Multivariate Vasicek Processes, given by Dr. Michael Pokojovy, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematical Sciences, PhD Program in Data Science, PhD Program in Computational Science, The University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP)!

This talk will discuss analyzing multiple zero-coupon bonds simultaneously to forecast future short rate dynamics. Those forecasts can play important roles in risk management, portfolio optimization, and other applications.

Because of low correlation with other asset classes, bonds play major roles in portfolio diversification efforts. A pure discount or a zero-coupon bond is a contract that does not involve intermediate interest payments but is traded at a deep discount, rendering yields at maturity when redeemed at full face value. As investment funds can create robust diversified portfolios with bonds, it is imperative that multiple bonds be analyzed simultaneously. The classical Vasicek model studies individual zero-coupon bonds and assumes the instantaneous interest rate follows a mean reverting process. In this talk, we consider an extension of the original Vasicek model to multiple zero-coupon bonds. The resulting coupled model is given by a stochastic differential equation driven by a p-dimensional white noise process. Given a set of observations over an equispaced time grid, our goal is to calibrate the system and forecast future short rate dynamics. Those forecasts can play important roles in risk management, portfolio optimization, and other applications. This is joint work with Ebenezer Nkum and Thomas M. Fullerton (UTEP).

Michael Pokojovy is an Assistant Professor of Data Science and Statistics. He holds a Ph.D. and a Dipl.-Math. degree in Mathematical Sciences, both from the University of Konstanz, Germany. Prior to his current appointment at UTEP, Dr. Pokojovy has held several postdoctoral positions in Europe and the US. His research interests include Statistical & Machine Learning, Big Data Analytics, Scientific Computing, etc. In addition to numerous theoretical and methodological developments, he has a track record of collaborative research in statistical process control, quantitative finance, engineering, biomedical sciences, rational mechanics, etc. He has authored and co-authored a number of publications in a variety of professional journals. Dr. Pokojovy has also mentored and advised numerous undergraduate, graduate and doctoral students as well as postdoctoral scholars who are now successfully pursuing various exciting careers in industry or academia.

This talk was supported by a grant from the Ramapo College Foundation.

WebEx information will be provided upon registration

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Categories: Data Science, Lecture Series, MSCS, MSDS